Eurovision 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win in Vienna?
TL;DR: With the Grand Final two days away (May 16), Finland is the clear Eurovision 2026 favorite at 2.14 — 46.7% implied probability and shorter than at any earlier point in the cycle. Finland topped Semi-Final 1 on May 12, and the market has only firmed it since. Behind it, Greece (6.01) is the settled #2 and Denmark (7.69) holds third. The big late moves are downward: France has collapsed from 7.59 to 15.36 since April 29, and Sweden has fallen off a cliff — 22.90 to 71.93 after Felicia's *My System* underwhelmed. Semi-Final 2 is tonight, May 14. Compare all Eurovision 2026 odds live →
Key Dates & Schedule for Eurovision 2026
The 70th Eurovision Song Contest takes place at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria — the same venue that hosted the 2015 contest. The contest is now in its final week:
Semi-Final 1: May 12, 2026 — done. 10 of 15 countries qualified.
Semi-Final 2: May 14, 2026 — tonight. 15 compete, 10 qualify.
Grand Final: May 16, 2026 — 25 finalists, host Austria performing last.
Host venue: Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna (capacity ~16,000)
The market's biggest repricing windows — rehearsals, the pre-parties, the running-order draw and Semi-Final 1 — are now behind us. From here, the only inputs left are tonight's Semi-Final 2 result and the Friday dress rehearsals before Saturday's final.
What Is Officially Confirmed for Eurovision 2026
Semi-Final 1 result (May 12)
Ten countries qualified from the first semi-final: Finland, Greece, Israel, Sweden, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, Poland, Lithuania and Belgium. Knocked out: Portugal, Montenegro, Estonia, San Marino and Georgia.
All four pre-show favorites came through — Finland, Greece, Israel and Sweden — and Finland reportedly topped the night. The upset was at the margin: Belgium, the longest qualification price in the semi, went through, while Portugal — the market's marginal tenth pick — did not. Vanilla Ninja's Estonian comeback also missed the cut.
Semi-Final 2 (tonight, May 14)
Fifteen countries compete tonight for the last ten Grand Final places. By our qualification odds, four are near-locks — Denmark (1.00), Australia (1.01), Romania (1.01) and Ukraine (1.02) — followed by Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia and Malta in the safe-ish tier. Cyprus (1.49) and Norway (1.59) sit on the bubble, with Latvia and Switzerland just outside it and Azerbaijan (10.54) the clear back-marker.
Grand Final field (May 16)
The Grand Final is a 25-country show: the "Big Four" plus host auto-qualifiers — France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and host Austria — plus ten qualifiers from each semi-final. There is no "Big Five" this year: Spain is part of a five-country boycott (with Ireland and Slovenia also not broadcasting, and Iceland and the Netherlands not competing) over Israel's participation — the largest withdrawal in the contest's modern history. Austria, as host, performs 25th and last in the final.
Contest format and voting changes
35 countries are competing in Vienna — the smallest field since semi-finals began.
Juries are back in the Semi-Finals for 2026, alongside the public vote — roughly a 50/50 split.
Jury panels expand from 5 to 7 members, with at least two jurors aged 18–25.
Maximum votes per payment method drop from 20 to 10.
Key entries shaping the Eurovision 2026 betting odds
Finland: Lampenius & Parkkonen — *Liekinheitin*. Won UMK; topped Semi-Final 1; the dominant favorite. Read more about Finland's chances →
Greece: Akylas — *Ferto*. Qualified from Semi-Final 1; the settled #2 in the winner market. Read Greece's odds analysis →
Denmark: Søren Torpegaard Lund — *Før vi går hjem*. In Semi-Final 2 tonight; third favorite for the win.
Australia: Delta Goodrem — *Eclipse*. In Semi-Final 2; recovered sharply in the last 48 hours.
Israel: Noam Bettan — *Michelle*. Qualified from Semi-Final 1; firmed after strong rehearsal reviews.
France: Monroe — *Regarde !*. Auto-qualifier — and the biggest faller in the top tier.
Sweden: Felicia — *My System*. Qualified from Semi-Final 1, but the winner price has collapsed.
Italy: Sal Da Vinci — *Per sempre sì*. Auto-qualifier; mid-table and steady. Read Italy's odds breakdown →
Eurovision 2026 Favorites & Betting Odds
Finland has led the winner market in every snapshot since February. What changed in the last fortnight is that the late-April "compression has stalled" story is gone: Finland has shortened from 2.54 on April 29 to 2.14 today, and a strong Semi-Final 1 only added to it. Here is the full picture from our bookmaker feed.
The Top 3 Contenders
1. Finland — 2.14 (46.7%) | Best price: 1.91
Finland's *Liekinheitin* has been #1 in every snapshot since February 13, and it is now shorter than at any point in the cycle. It eased to 2.28 on Semi-Final 1 day, then firmed straight back to 2.14 once it qualified — reportedly as the night's top scorer. At 46.7% implied probability, Finland is closer to an even-money favorite than a contender in a crowd. The only open question is whether a clean dress rehearsal pushes it below 2.00.
2. Greece — 6.01 (16.6%) | Best price: 5.00
Akylas and *Ferto* are the settled second favorite. Greece shortened all the way to 5.17 in Semi-Final 1 week — and briefly traded near 4.0 on the night itself — before easing back to 6.01. That is still a clear improvement on the 7.47 it was priced at on April 29. Greece is the only entry the market treats as a genuine, if distant, threat to Finland.
3. Denmark — 7.69 (13.0%) | Best price: 6.50
Denmark's *Før vi går hjem* has held third right through the semi-final run-up, drifting only mildly from 7.20 to 7.69. It still has to qualify from Semi-Final 2 tonight — the market makes that a formality at 1.00 — but as a winner bet it is the clearest "no-fault" entry near the top: stable, well-staged, jury-friendly.
Updated Winner Odds Snapshot (May 14, 2026)
Current average winner odds across bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io. "Best" shows the lowest available odds — the best value for bettors — from our feed. See all prices live →
| Country | Odds | Best | Win % | vs Apr 29 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | 2.14 | 1.91 | 46.7% | ▼ 15.7% |
| 2 | 🇬🇷 Greece | 6.01 | 5.00 | 16.6% | ▼ 19.5% |
| 3 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 7.69 | 6.50 | 13.0% | ▲ 6.8% |
| 4 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 10.65 | 8.00 | 9.4% | ▲ 8.6% |
| 5 | 🇮🇱 Israel | 12.57 | 11.00 | 8.0% | ▼ 6.4% |
| 6 | 🇫🇷 France | 15.36 | 11.00 | 6.5% | ▲ 102.4% |
| 7 | 🇷🇴 Romania | 25.00 | 19.00 | 4.0% | ▼ 12.4% |
| 8 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 32.07 | 26.00 | 3.1% | ▲ 1.9% |
| 9 | 🇲🇹 Malta | 48.62 | 34.00 | 2.1% | ▼ 3.2% |
| 10 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 52.69 | 41.00 | 1.9% | ▲ 46.2% |
| 11 | 🇭🇷 Croatia | 60.62 | 40.00 | 1.6% | ▼ 35.5% |
| 12 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 63.86 | 45.00 | 1.6% | ▲ 1.3% |
| 13 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 71.93 | 51.00 | 1.4% | ▲ 214.1% |
*▼ = odds shortening (becoming more favored). ▲ = odds drifting (becoming less favored). "vs Apr 29" compares today's average to this guide's last update. "Best" = lowest available price across bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io. Data from WhatOdds.io.*
What the Eurovision 2026 odds are telling us
Finland is no longer just leading — it is dominating. 46.7% implied probability with two days to go is a strong favorite by Eurovision standards. The April wobble is gone, and Semi-Final 1 removed the last "can it perform live" doubt.
France is the story behind the favorite — for the wrong reasons. France has drifted from 7.59 on April 29 to 15.36, more than doubling its price and dropping from fourth to sixth. As an auto-qualifier it had no semi-final to prove itself in, and rehearsal week clearly did not go its way.
Sweden has collapsed. Felicia's *My System* qualified from Semi-Final 1, but the winner price has gone 22.90 → 71.93 in a fortnight — a 214% drift. Sweden is now an outright outsider; whatever value it has left is in placement markets, not the win. See our Top 10 value picks →.
Australia and Israel are the late firmers. Both drifted hard in early May, then snapped back — Australia from a 15-plus peak to 10.65, Israel from near 20 to 12.57 — as Semi-Final 1 results and late rehearsals landed better than the studio cuts had suggested.
Greece eased off its peak but is still clearly second. The sub-4.5 price it touched on Semi-Final 1 night did not hold, but 6.01 is a long way clear of Denmark in the fourth-favorite gap.
What Moved (Apr 29 → May 14)
The last two weeks covered the whole back half of the cycle: rehearsals, the running-order draw and Semi-Final 1. Here is where the market actually moved.
Sharpened (odds shortened — becoming more favored):
Croatia: 94.00 → 60.62 (-35.5%) — the cleanest move outside the top five.
Greece: 7.47 → 6.01 (-19.5%) — locked in as the #2.
Finland: 2.54 → 2.14 (-15.7%) — the favorite got shorter, not just safer.
Romania: 28.54 → 25.00 (-12.4%) — quietly firming ahead of Semi-Final 2.
Israel: 13.43 → 12.57 (-6.4%) — net move modest, but it recovered hard from an early-May drift.
Drifted (odds lengthened — becoming less favored):
Sweden: 22.90 → 71.93 (+214%) — the collapse of the cycle.
France: 7.59 → 15.36 (+102%) — out of the top tier entirely.
Ukraine: 36.04 → 52.69 (+46%) — winner market cooled, even as it stays a safe Semi-Final 2 qualifier.
Australia: 9.81 → 10.65 (+8.6%) — a net drift that masks a much bigger swing in between.
Denmark: 7.20 → 7.69 (+6.8%) — mild softening, still third.
Sharp Money: Israel (12.57)
The clearest event-driven move of the fortnight. Israel drifted out to 19.81 on May 7 during a quiet stretch of rehearsals, then came all the way back to 12.57 — a 36% shortening — once Noam Bettan qualified comfortably from Semi-Final 1 and rehearsal reviews of *Michelle* turned positive.
It is not a winner play at 8.0% implied probability. But it is the textbook pattern of a price overreacting to silence and then correcting on actual evidence — the kind of move worth noticing, not chasing. Best available price: 11.00. See all bookmaker prices for Israel →
What Is Left Before the Grand Final
Two days, two events that still move prices:
Tonight — Semi-Final 2 (May 14). The last ten finalists are decided. For the winner market, the entries that matter are Denmark (third favorite) and Australia (fourth) — both near-certain to qualify, but a standout performance from either can move the outright. Romania and Ukraine also feature.
May 15 — Grand Final dress rehearsals. Juries in most countries cast their votes during the Friday-evening dress rehearsal. It is the last real information the market gets before Saturday.
May 16 — Grand Final. 25 countries, Austria last. Polls and in-running odds move fast during the show itself — watch for the gap between Finland and the field.
Country-by-Country Analysis
For deeper odds analysis on individual countries and stages, see our dedicated pages:
Finland Eurovision 2026: Odds & Chances — the dominant favorite's path to victory
Greece Eurovision 2026: Can Akylas Win? — the settled #2 behind Finland
Italy Eurovision 2026: Sal Da Vinci's Chances — why the recovery reversed
Sweden Eurovision 2026: Odds & Chances — anatomy of a collapse
Eurovision 2026 Top 10 Odds: Best Value Picks — where the smart money is looking
Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 Predictions — how the first semi was called
Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2 Predictions — tonight's qualifiers, by the odds
How Eurovision Odds Predict the Winner — historical accuracy analysis
Eurovision Betting Odds Explained — new to Eurovision betting? Start here
Best Eurovision Scoreboard Tool in 2026 — rank all 35 entries yourself
Sources & Verification
Official contest framework, results and dates:
Official participating artists/songs:
Odds data (aggregated from bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io):
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I bet on Eurovision 2026 now?
Yes — bookmakers offer an "Outright Winner" market plus per-semi-final qualification markets for Eurovision 2026. The Grand Final is on May 16. Compare live prices on our Eurovision odds comparison page to find the best value.
Who is the favorite to win Eurovision 2026?
As of May 14, 2026 — two days before the Grand Final — Finland is the clear favorite at 2.14 (46.7% implied probability) across bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io, and it is shorter than at any earlier point in the cycle after topping Semi-Final 1. Greece is the settled second favorite at 6.01 and Denmark holds third at 7.69. The biggest late move is France, which has drifted from 7.59 to 15.36 since April 29. These odds update multiple times daily — see our live Eurovision odds page.
Which countries qualified from Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
Ten countries qualified from Semi-Final 1 on May 12: Finland, Greece, Israel, Sweden, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, Poland, Lithuania and Belgium. Knocked out were Portugal, Montenegro, Estonia, San Marino and Georgia. All four pre-show favorites came through; the upset was Belgium qualifying as the semi's longest price while Portugal missed out.
Which countries compete in Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2?
Fifteen countries compete in Semi-Final 2 on May 14 for the last ten Grand Final places: Denmark, Australia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia, Malta, Cyprus, Norway, Latvia, Switzerland, Armenia, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan. By our qualification odds, Denmark, Australia, Romania and Ukraine are near-certain to advance.
What are the major voting changes for Eurovision 2026?
The EBU has confirmed three key changes: juries return to the Semi-Finals (roughly a 50/50 jury + public split), jury panels increase from 5 to 7 members (at least two aged 18–25), and the maximum votes per payment method drop from 20 to 10.
How many countries are in Eurovision 2026?
35 countries compete in Vienna — the smallest field since semi-finals began. Five countries (Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain) are not taking part over Israel's inclusion, the largest withdrawal in the contest's modern history. The Grand Final on May 16 has 25 entries: the Big Four (France, Germany, Italy, UK) plus host Austria, and ten qualifiers from each semi-final.
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