Eurovision 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win in Vienna?
TL;DR: As of April 13, 2026, Finland leads the Eurovision 2026 betting odds at 2.51 (best price: 2.10) across 12 bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io — still dominant but cooling slightly after Eurovision in Concert (Apr 11). Romania is the explosive new story, compressing from 66.08 to 22.29 (-66.3%) in three weeks and crashing into the top 10. First rehearsals begin in Vienna on April 19 — historically the single biggest repricing event of the cycle. Compare all Eurovision 2026 odds live →
Key Dates & Schedule for Eurovision 2026
The 70th Eurovision Song Contest takes place at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria — the same venue that hosted the 2015 contest. Here are the key dates every bettor should have in their calendar:
Semi-Final 1: May 12, 2026
Semi-Final 2: May 14, 2026
Grand Final: May 16, 2026
Host Venue: Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna (Capacity: ~16,000)
Semi-final running order: Expected end of March 2026
What Is Officially Confirmed for Eurovision 2026
All 35 participating countries have confirmed their artists and songs. The market is now pricing finished products — not speculation about who might be selected.
Contest-level updates
35 broadcasters confirmed for Vienna — the smallest field since semi-finals began in 2004.
5 countries boycotting (Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain) over Israel's inclusion — the largest boycott in Eurovision history.
3 returning countries: Bulgaria (3-year absence), Romania (2-year absence), Moldova (1-year absence).
All 35 songs and artists confirmed as of March 11.
Eurovision in Concert (Amsterdam) took place on April 11 — 27 acts performed at AFAS Live, the largest pre-party of the cycle.
First rehearsals begin at the Wiener Stadthalle on April 19, with full show rehearsals starting April 24.
The Semi-Final running order has been published; stage construction inside the Stadthalle is now visible.
Big 5 + host split: Germany and Italy vote in Semi-Final 1; Austria, France, and the UK in Semi-Final 2. Austria (COSMO) will perform 25th (last) in the Grand Final.
Voting overhaul for 2026: juries return to the Semi-Finals (roughly 50/50 split), jury panels increase from 5 to 7 members (at least two aged 18–25), and max votes per payment method drop from 20 to 10.
Key entries shaping the Eurovision 2026 betting odds
Finland: Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen — *Liekinheitin* (won UMK Feb 28, record 1.8M viewers). Semi-Final 1. Read more about Finland's chances →
France: Monroe — *Regarde !* (internal selection, confirmed Mar 6). 17-year-old French-American singer. Grand Final.
Denmark: Søren Torpegaard Lund — *Før Vi Går Hjem*. Semi-Final 2.
Greece: Akylas — *Ferto* (selected Feb 15). Semi-Final 1. Read Greece's odds analysis →
Australia: Delta Goodrem — *Eclipse* (internal selection, confirmed Mar 1). Semi-Final 2.
Sweden: Felicia — *My System* (won Melodifestivalen Mar 7). Semi-Final 1.
Italy: Sal Da Vinci — *Per Sempre Si* (won Sanremo Feb 28). Grand Final. Read Italy's post-Sanremo odds →
Germany: Sarah Engels — *Fire* (won Das Deutsche Finale Feb 28). Grand Final.
Norway: Jonas Lovv — *Ya Ya Ya* (won MGP Feb 28). Semi-Final 2.
United Kingdom: Look Mum No Computer — *Eins, Zwei, Drei* (song released Mar 6). First UK entry not sung entirely in English. Grand Final.
Romania: A. Căpitănescu — *Choke Me*. The market's biggest sharpener since our last update — odds compressed from 66.08 to 22.29 (-66.3%) in three weeks.
Israel: Noam Bettan — *Michelle*.
Eurovision 2026 Favorites & Betting Odds
Finland has held the #1 spot in every snapshot since mid-February. With Eurovision in Concert now done and rehearsals six days away, the market is reacting to real live performances rather than studio cuts. The leaders have softened slightly while the chasing pack — led by Romania's stunning surge — has tightened. Here is the full picture from our 12-bookmaker feed.
The Top 3 Contenders
1. Finland — 2.51 (39.8%) | Best price: 2.10
Finland has been #1 in every single snapshot since February 13. *Liekinheitin* shattered UMK records — 1.8 million viewers, 570 points, nearly triple the runner-up — and the market has now compressed Finland from 5.11 in late February to 2.51 today. Best price has dropped to 2.10. The slight cooling visible on Polymarket (~44% peak in late March, ~37% now) reflects healthy market caution as live performances begin, not a structural drift. This is still the most one-sided pre-rehearsal market since Loreen in 2023.
2. France — 6.67 (15%) | Best price: 5.50
Monroe's *Regarde !* delivered the sharpest surge of the season — France compressed from 17.27 (Feb 25) to a 5.90 peak in mid-March. Since then it has eased modestly to 6.67, with this week showing fresh sharpening (-3.5% in 7 days). External aggregators (Oddschecker) report France and Denmark now joint-second at 6/1, slightly ahead of our cross-book average. The Eurovision in Concert performance appears to have reinforced rather than cracked the case.
3. Denmark — 7.67 (13%) | Best price: 7.00
Denmark's *Før Vi Går Hjem* has been the most boring story in the market — and that is exactly why it sits at #3. Quiet, consistent compression from 33.33 (Feb 13) all the way down to a 6.51 low on March 22. It has drifted modestly to 7.67 since (the first sustained drift of the entire cycle), but the 7-day move is essentially flat (-0.3%). Denmark remains the clearest "no-fault" entry in the top three.
Updated Top 10 Snapshot (Apr 13, 2026)
Current average winner odds across 12 bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io. "Best price" shows the lowest available odds — the best value for bettors — from our feed. See all prices live →
| Country | Odds | Best | Win % | 7 Days | 3 Weeks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇮 Finland | 2.51 | 2.10 | 39.8% | ▼ 1.2% | ▼ 5.3% |
| 2 | 🇫🇷 France | 6.67 | 5.50 | 15.0% | ▼ 3.5% | ▲ 7.4% |
| 3 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | 7.67 | 7.00 | 13.0% | ▼ 0.3% | ▲ 17.8% |
| 4 | 🇦🇺 Australia | 9.96 | 7.00 | 10.0% | ▲ 2.2% | ▼ 23.4% |
| 5 | 🇬🇷 Greece | 10.50 | 8.00 | 9.5% | ▲ 7.3% | ▲ 3.7% |
| 6 | 🇮🇱 Israel | 16.71 | 13.00 | 6.0% | ▼ 2.9% | ▼ 0.2% |
| 7 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | 19.21 | 15.00 | 5.2% | ▲ 1.5% | ▲ 38.0% |
| 8 | 🇷🇴 Romania | 22.29 | 17.00 | 4.5% | ▼ 7.7% | ▼ 66.3% |
| 9 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 29.14 | 25.00 | 3.4% | ▲ 7.6% | ▼ 4.7% |
| 10 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 30.00 | 19.00 | 3.3% | ▼ 4.1% | ▲ 5.3% |
*▼ = odds shortening (becoming more favored). ▲ = odds drifting. "Best" = lowest available price across 12 bookmakers. Data from WhatOdds.io.*
What the Eurovision 2026 odds are telling us
The market is sending several clear signals right now:
Finland still owns the top — but it's no longer untouchable. At 39.8% implied probability, Finland remains nearly #2 and #3 combined. But Polymarket has cooled it from a ~44% peak to ~37%, and our cross-book average compressed only -5.3% over 3 weeks (vs -48% in the previous month). The market is letting Finland prove itself live before pushing further.
Romania is the new sharp-money story. Căpitănescu's *Choke Me* triggered a clean -66.3% compression in 3 weeks — from 66.08 (#16) to 22.29 (#8). Every bookmaker repriced in the same direction. This is the kind of uniform, sustained cross-book move that historically signals informed confidence rather than retail hype. (See "Sharp Money" below.)
Australia continues to climb. Delta Goodrem's *Eclipse* has now pushed Australia from 12th (27.55) on Feb 25 → 5th (12.92) on Mar 22 → 4th (9.96) today. Best price is 7.00 — the largest available value gap in the top 4.
The top 3 is leaking — but not breaking. France (+7.4%), Denmark (+17.8%), and Finland (-5.3% only) all softened over the 3-week window. This is classic post-surge consolidation rather than a structural collapse. With rehearsals next week, expect the leaders to re-test their levels.
Sweden, UK, Malta, and Norway are quietly collapsing. Sweden +38%, UK +71% (out of top 15), Malta +61%, Norway +54%. The market has decided several pre-Eurovision national-final winners are not Vienna-ready. For deeper analysis on the value plays below the top 3, see our Top 10 value picks →.
Real Price Action: Eurovision 2026 Odds Movement
Understanding how odds have moved — not just where they sit — reveals where the market sees genuine value versus fading hype. Here are the key movements from our historical data.
Since our last update (Mar 22 → Apr 13)
Sharpening (odds shortened — becoming more favored):
Romania: 66.08 → 22.29 (-66.3%) — 16th → 8th. The biggest move of the cycle, full stop.
Moldova: 104.67 → 79.29 (-24.2%) — entered the top 15.
Australia: 13.00 → 9.96 (-23.4%) — 5th → 4th. Goodrem effect continues.
Finland: 2.65 → 2.51 (-5.3%) — already #1, modestly tighter.
Drifting (odds lengthened — becoming less favored):
United Kingdom: 53.50 → 91.36 (+70.8%) — fell from 13th to 18th, dropped out of meaningful contention.
Malta: 37.08 → 59.79 (+61.2%) — fell from 11th to 14th.
Norway: 83.50 → 128.93 (+54.4%) — collapse continues.
Sweden: 13.92 → 19.21 (+38.0%) — *My System* is now the clearest top-10 fader.
Luxembourg: 64.42 → 85.07 (+32.1%).
Cyprus: 36.17 → 45.07 (+24.6%) — dropped out of top 10.
Denmark: 6.51 → 7.67 (+17.8%) — first sustained drift of the cycle, but still firmly #3.
Last 7 Days (Apr 6 → Apr 13)
The week of Eurovision in Concert. The leaders held flat while the chasing pack split sharply between gainers and faders:
This week's biggest shorteners:
Romania: 24.14 → 22.29 (-7.7%) — the surge is still in motion
Italy: 31.29 → 30.00 (-4.1%)
France: 6.91 → 6.67 (-3.5%) — quietly retesting its 2nd-place case
Israel: 17.21 → 16.71 (-2.9%)
This week's drifters:
Norway: 118.57 → 128.93 (+8.7%)
Ukraine: 27.07 → 29.14 (+7.6%)
Greece: 9.79 → 10.50 (+7.3%)
United Kingdom: 87.21 → 91.36 (+4.8%)
Finland (-1.2%) and Denmark (-0.3%) were essentially flat — the rare "do nothing" week for the leaders. With rehearsals starting April 19, the next 10 days are likely the calm before a major repricing event.
Sharp Money: Romania (22.29)
The clearest data-backed move of the past month: 66.08 on March 22 to 22.29 today, a 66.3% compression across all 12 bookmakers we track. Romania jumped from #16 — outside any betting conversation — to #8 in three weeks, and the move continued into the most recent week (-7.7% over the last 7 days alone).
What makes this a "sharp" move rather than retail noise: every single bookmaker in our feed shortened Romania in the same direction, and the compression has held week after week without a single drift week. *Choke Me* by A. Căpitănescu is the song the market re-evaluated hardest after pre-party reactions began circulating. Best available price: 17.00 — still a meaningful gap below the 22.29 average. See all bookmaker prices for Romania →
Next High-Impact Checkpoints for Eurovision 2026 Odds
The biggest single repricing event of the cycle starts in six days. Here is the road from now to the Grand Final:
Already happened (April 11)
Eurovision in Concert (Amsterdam) — 27 acts at AFAS Live, the largest pre-party of the season. Most audible market reaction so far: Romania's continued sharpening (-7.7% in the last 7 days) and Sweden's quiet collapse.
This week (April 18)
Eurovision Pre-Party Bucharest — last major pre-party before rehearsals.
April 19 (in 6 days)
First rehearsals begin at the Wiener Stadthalle — historically the single biggest repricing event in the entire cycle. Staging, live vocals, and camera angles become real rather than theoretical. Expect the largest odds swings of the season here. This is the window that separates genuine contenders from studio-only songs.
April 24
Wider show rehearsals begin — full production runs with hosts and broadcast graphics.
May 10
Opening Ceremony / Turquoise Carpet at Rathausplatz.
May 12–16
Semi-Final 1 (May 12), Semi-Final 2 (May 14), Grand Final (May 16).
Country-by-Country Analysis
For deeper odds analysis on individual countries, see our dedicated pages:
Finland Eurovision 2026: Odds & Chances — The dominant favorite's path to victory
Greece Eurovision 2026: Can Akylas Win? — From #2 to #4: what happened
Italy Eurovision 2026: Sal Da Vinci's Chances — Post-Sanremo drift and recovery
Eurovision 2026 Top 10 Odds: Best Value Picks — Where the smart money is looking
How Eurovision Odds Predict the Winner — Historical accuracy analysis
Eurovision Betting Odds Explained — New to Eurovision betting? Start here
Sources & Verification
Official contest framework and dates:
Official rule and format updates:
Official participating artists/songs:
Pre-parties, rehearsals & venue:
Odds data (aggregated from 12 bookmakers):
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I bet on Eurovision 2026 now?
Yes — 12 bookmakers currently offer "Outright Winner" markets for Eurovision 2026 and all 35 songs are confirmed. Compare live prices on our Eurovision odds comparison page to find the best value.
Who is the favorite to win Eurovision 2026?
As of April 13, 2026, Finland leads the outright winner market at 2.51 (39.8% implied probability) across 12 bookmakers tracked by WhatOdds.io, followed by France (6.67) and Denmark (7.67). Romania is the biggest mover of the month, surging from #16 to #8. These odds update multiple times daily — check our live Eurovision odds page for the latest prices.
Are all Eurovision 2026 artists and songs confirmed?
Yes. All 35 entries were confirmed by March 11, 2026, when Armenia became the last country to reveal its song. The full lineup of official music videos is available on the Eurovision YouTube channel.
What are the major voting changes for Eurovision 2026?
The EBU has announced three key changes: juries return to the Semi-Finals (roughly 50/50 jury + public split), jury panels increase from 5 to 7 members (at least two aged 18–25), and the maximum votes per payment method drops from 20 to 10.
How many countries are in Eurovision 2026?
35 countries will compete in Vienna — the smallest field since semi-finals began in 2004. Five countries (Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain) are boycotting the contest over Israel's inclusion.
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