Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2 Predictions: Qualifier Odds & Surprise NQs
TL;DR: Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2 looks deeper but less chaotic than Semi-Final 1. Denmark, Australia, Romania and Ukraine are near-locks at 1.00-1.02, then Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia and Malta have all firmed above 82%. The pressure point is the final slot or two: Norway holds 10th at 62.9%, with Latvia (46.3%) and Switzerland (44.8%) the live bubble going into tonight's show. Compare live odds →
Semi-Final 2 Date, Format and Running Order
Semi-Final 2 takes place on Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 21:00 CEST at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
There are 15 competing countries and 10 qualify for the Grand Final. Austria, France and the United Kingdom perform in the show as automatic finalists and vote in this semi-final.
The official running order is:
| Order | Country | Artist | Song |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulgaria | Dara | Bangaranga |
| 2 | Azerbaijan | Jiva | Just Go |
| 3 | Romania | Alexandra Căpitănescu | Choke Me |
| 4 | Luxembourg | Eva Marija | Mother Nature |
| 5 | Czechia | Daniel Zizka | Crossroads |
| - | France | Monroe | Regarde ! |
| 6 | Armenia | Simón | Paloma Rumba |
| 7 | Switzerland | Veronica Fusaro | Alice |
| 8 | Cyprus | Antigoni | Jalla |
| - | Austria | Cosmo | Tanzschein |
| 9 | Latvia | Atvara | Ēnā |
| 10 | Denmark | Søren Torpegaard Lund | Før Vi Går Hjem |
| 11 | Australia | Delta Goodrem | Eclipse |
| 12 | Ukraine | Leleka | Ridnym |
| - | United Kingdom | Look Mum No Computer | Eins, Zwei, Drei |
| 13 | Albania | Alis | Nân |
| 14 | Malta | Aidan | Bella |
| 15 | Norway | Jonas Lovv | Ya ya ya |
The key format point: juries are back in the semi-finals for 2026. That makes Semi-Final 2 less of a pure televote race and more of a balance test.
Current Semi-Final 2 Qualifier Odds
These are the current qualifier odds, verified in the WhatOdds feed on May 14, 2026.
| Rank | Country | Qualifier Odds | Implied Chance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denmark | 1.00 | 100.0% | Near-lock |
| 2 | Australia | 1.01 | 99.0% | Near-lock |
| 3 | Romania | 1.01 | 99.0% | Near-lock |
| 4 | Ukraine | 1.02 | 98.0% | Near-lock |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 1.10 | 90.9% | Very likely |
| 6 | Albania | 1.18 | 84.7% | Very likely |
| 7 | Czechia | 1.19 | 84.0% | Very likely |
| 8 | Malta | 1.22 | 82.0% | Very likely |
| 9 | Cyprus | 1.49 | 67.1% | Likely |
| 10 | Norway | 1.59 | 62.9% | Holds the 10th spot |
| 11 | Latvia | 2.16 | 46.3% | Bubble |
| 12 | Switzerland | 2.23 | 44.8% | Bubble |
| 13 | Armenia | 2.65 | 37.7% | Needs a lift |
| 14 | Luxembourg | 2.99 | 33.4% | Needs a lift |
| 15 | Azerbaijan | 10.54 | 9.5% | Long shot |
This is a very different market from Semi-Final 1. The top eight are all above 82%, which means the market sees only the 9th and 10th places as genuinely open.
Our Predicted Qualifiers
Based on current odds, running order and the jury return, our predicted qualifiers for tonight are:
1. Denmark
2. Australia
3. Romania
4. Ukraine
5. Bulgaria
6. Albania
7. Czechia
8. Malta
9. Cyprus
10. Norway
That is the market top 10, and for good reason. Semi-Final 2 has fewer obvious "collapse" spots than Semi-Final 1. The disagreement is not about the first eight. It is about whether Cyprus and Norway can hold off Latvia and Switzerland for the last two seats.
Why Denmark Leads the Semi-Final 2 Market
Denmark is 1.00 to qualify and 7.69 in the outright winner market. That puts Søren Torpegaard Lund in a rare position: a near-lock qualifier and the third name in the winner market, behind only Finland and Greece.
The running order is also useful. Denmark performs 10th, directly before Australia and Ukraine. That stretch is the highest-market-value block in the semi, which makes it hard for casual viewers to miss Denmark's place in the contest narrative. Read Denmark odds analysis →
The Four Near-Locks
Denmark
Denmark has shortened from 33.67 in February to 7.69 now, and qualification is fully priced at 1.00. The market sees *Før Vi Går Hjem* as more than a safe finalist.
Australia
Delta Goodrem is 1.01 to qualify. Australia has a polished vocal profile, a known artist, and a strong market floor. The risk is not qualification; it is whether *Eclipse* can find enough televote energy in the final.
Romania
Romania has firmed to 1.01 since rehearsals opened. *Choke Me* started the spring as a mid-table pick and is now level with Australia in the qualifier market — the clearest mover of the four.
Ukraine
Ukraine has drifted in the outright winner market, but the qualifier market is still strong at 1.02. That split says the market trusts qualification while questioning the winning ceiling.
The Bubble: Cyprus, Norway, Latvia and Switzerland
This is the section that decides tonight.
Cyprus has slipped to 1.49 (67.1%) and is no longer a comfortable qualifier.
Norway holds the 10th spot at 1.59 (62.9%).
Latvia is the first name below the line at 2.16 (46.3%).
Switzerland is just behind at 2.23 (44.8%).
The 2026 jury return matters here. If a bubble entry has clean vocals and a serious staging concept, it can outperform a narrow price. If it relies mainly on mood or televote identity, it needs the camera package to be obvious immediately.
Most Likely Shock Non-Qualifier
The uncomfortable answer is Cyprus or Norway, not Azerbaijan or Luxembourg. Azerbaijan is already priced like a non-qualifier, so it would not be a shock. Luxembourg is also outside the current top 10.
Cyprus and Norway are the last two names inside the projected 10, and both have drifted hard since April 30. If one of the expected qualifiers drops out, it is more likely to come from that edge than from Denmark, Australia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia or Malta.
Best Value Angle
The market is too short at the top for casual qualifier bets — the four near-locks and Bulgaria are priced out. The useful angles are:
Latvia to qualify if the staging solves the song's visual question.
Switzerland to qualify if jury rehearsal notes are positive.
Cyprus not to qualify if a busy semi buries it in the running order.
Norway not to qualify if the live package feels too subtle.
These prices move fast on the night. Track live prices before making a call: Eurovision odds comparison →.
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Sources & Verification
For the broader semi-final comparison, read Semi-Final 1 vs 2: who has the tougher draw?.
When the bubble shifts on the night, the fastest place to spot it is the live Eurovision odds page →.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will qualify from Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2?
The current market top 10 is Denmark, Australia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia, Malta, Cyprus and Norway. Norway holds the 10th spot at 62.9%, with Latvia and Switzerland the live bubble below it.
When is Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2?
Semi-Final 2 is on Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 21:00 CEST at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
Which automatic finalists vote in Semi-Final 2?
Austria, France and the United Kingdom perform non-competitively and vote in Semi-Final 2. Denmark, Australia, Romania and Ukraine are the strongest competing entries in the market.
Is Semi-Final 2 harder than Semi-Final 1?
Semi-Final 2 is deeper and more orderly. It has four near-locks, then a large middle tier above 80%. Semi-Final 1 was more top-heavy but produced a clean result on May 12, with all four favourites through.
Where can I compare live Semi-Final 2 odds?
Use the WhatOdds Eurovision odds comparison to track live qualifier and winner markets, then save your own predicted qualifiers in the Eurovision scoreboard.
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