Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2 Predictions: Qualifier Odds & Surprise NQs

TL;DR: Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 2 looks deeper but less chaotic than Semi-Final 1. Denmark, Australia and Ukraine are near-locks, then Romania, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Malta, Norway and Czechia all sit above 75% to qualify. The pressure point is the final slot: Albania is the market's 10th qualifier, with Latvia, Armenia and Switzerland close enough to flip the result after rehearsals. Compare live odds →

Semi-Final 2 Date, Format and Running Order

Semi-Final 2 takes place on Thursday, May 14, 2026 at 21:00 CEST at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.

There are 15 competing countries and 10 qualify for the Grand Final. Austria, France and the United Kingdom perform in the show as automatic finalists and vote in this semi-final.

The official running order is:

The key format point: juries are back in the semi-finals for 2026. That makes Semi-Final 2 less of a pure televote race and more of a balance test.

Current Semi-Final 2 Qualifier Odds

These are the current qualifier odds from the WhatOdds feed, checked against Supabase on April 30, 2026.

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1.

Finland

1.01

2.

Australia

1.02

3.

Greece

1.01

4.

Denmark

1.02

5.

Israel

1.02

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This is a very different market from Semi-Final 1. The top nine are all above 75%, which means the market sees only one truly open qualification place.

Our Predicted Qualifiers

Based on current odds, running order and the jury return, our pre-rehearsal predicted qualifiers are:

1. Denmark

2. Australia

3. Ukraine

4. Romania

5. Cyprus

6. Bulgaria

7. Malta

8. Norway

9. Czechia

10. Albania

That is close to the market order, and for good reason. Semi-Final 2 has fewer obvious "collapse" spots than Semi-Final 1. The disagreement is not about the first nine. It is about whether Albania can hold off Latvia, Armenia and Switzerland.

Why Denmark Leads the Semi-Final 2 Market

Denmark is 1.02 to qualify and 7.17 in the outright winner market. That puts Søren Torpegaard Lund in a rare position: a near-lock qualifier and a direct challenger to Finland, Greece and France.

The running order is also useful. Denmark performs 10th, directly before Australia and Ukraine. That stretch is the highest-market-value block in the semi, which makes it hard for casual viewers to miss Denmark's place in the contest narrative. Read Denmark odds analysis →

The Three Near-Locks

Denmark

Denmark has shortened from 33.67 in February to 7.17 now, and qualification is almost fully priced at 1.02. The market sees *Før Vi Går Hjem* as more than a safe finalist.

Australia

Delta Goodrem is also 1.02 to qualify. Australia has a polished vocal profile, a known artist, and a strong market floor. The risk is not qualification; it is whether *Eclipse* can find enough televote energy in the final.

Ukraine

Ukraine has drifted in the outright winner market to 37.21, but the qualifier market is still strong at 1.03. That split says the market trusts qualification while questioning the winning ceiling.

The Bubble: Albania vs Latvia vs Armenia vs Switzerland

This is the section to update after rehearsals.

The 2026 jury return matters here. If a bubble entry has clean vocals and a serious staging concept, it can outperform a narrow pre-rehearsal price. If it relies mainly on mood or televote identity, it needs the camera package to be obvious immediately.

Most Likely Shock Non-Qualifier

The uncomfortable answer is Czechia or Norway, not Azerbaijan or Luxembourg. Azerbaijan is already priced like a non-qualifier, so it would not be a shock. Luxembourg is also outside the current top 10.

Czechia and Norway are both above 75%, but they are the last two entries in the "likely" tier before Albania. If one of the expected nine drops out, it is more likely to come from that edge than from Denmark, Australia, Ukraine, Romania, Cyprus, Bulgaria or Malta.

Best Value Angle Before Rehearsals

The market is too short at the top for casual qualifier bets. The useful angles are:

Rehearsal week is where these prices change. Track live prices before making a call: Eurovision odds comparison →.

Sources & Verification

For the broader semi-final comparison, read Semi-Final 1 vs 2: who has the tougher draw?.

When the bubble shifts after rehearsals, the fastest place to spot it is the live Eurovision odds page →.