Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 Predictions: Qualifier Odds & Picks
TL;DR: Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 is the top-heavy semi. Finland, Greece, Sweden and Israel are priced like near-locks, while Moldova, Croatia, Serbia and Lithuania form the next strong tier. That leaves two open slots, and the real qualifier fight is around Montenegro, Georgia, Portugal, Estonia, Poland and Belgium. Compare live qualifier odds →
Semi-Final 1 Date, Format and Running Order
Semi-Final 1 takes place on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 21:00 CEST at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
There are 15 competing countries and 10 qualify for the Grand Final. Germany and Italy perform in the show as automatic finalists and vote in this semi-final, but they do not take qualification places.
The official running order is:
| Order | Country | Artist | Song |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moldova | Satoshi | Viva, Moldova |
| 2 | Sweden | Felicia | My System |
| 3 | Croatia | Lelek | Andromeda |
| 4 | Greece | Akylas | Ferto |
| 5 | Portugal | Bandidos do Cante | Rosa |
| 6 | Georgia | Bzikebi | On Replay |
| - | Italy | Sal Da Vinci | Per Sempre Sì |
| 7 | Finland | Lampenius & Parkkonen | Liekinheitin |
| 8 | Montenegro | Tamara Živković | Nova zora |
| 9 | Estonia | Vanilla Ninja | Too Epic To Be True |
| 10 | Israel | Noam Bettan | Michelle |
| - | Germany | Sarah Engels | Fire |
| 11 | Belgium | Essyla | Dancing on the Ice |
| 12 | Lithuania | Lion Ceccah | Sólo quiero más |
| 13 | San Marino | Senhit | Superstar |
| 14 | Poland | Alicja | Pray |
| 15 | Serbia | Lavina | Kraj mene |
The big 2026 rule change matters here: juries are back in the semi-finals alongside the public vote. A song now needs more than televote noise; it needs enough jury respect to survive a more balanced qualification system.
Current Semi-Final 1 Qualifier Odds
These are the current qualifier odds from the WhatOdds feed, checked against Supabase on April 30, 2026.
| Rank | Country | Qualifier Odds | Implied Chance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 1.01 | 99.0% | Lock |
| 2 | Greece | 1.01 | 99.0% | Lock |
| 3 | Sweden | 1.02 | 98.0% | Lock |
| 4 | Israel | 1.02 | 98.0% | Lock |
| 5 | Moldova | 1.12 | 89.3% | Very likely |
| 6 | Croatia | 1.17 | 85.5% | Very likely |
| 7 | Serbia | 1.17 | 85.5% | Very likely |
| 8 | Lithuania | 1.33 | 75.2% | Likely |
| 9 | Montenegro | 1.57 | 63.7% | Bubble-safe |
| 10 | Georgia | 1.86 | 53.8% | Bubble line |
| 11 | Portugal | 1.97 | 50.8% | Bubble line |
| 12 | Estonia | 2.12 | 47.2% | Bubble |
| 13 | Poland | 2.16 | 46.3% | Bubble |
| 14 | Belgium | 2.54 | 39.4% | Needs lift |
| 15 | San Marino | 4.97 | 20.1% | Long shot |
The market is unusually clear at the top and unusually messy around 9th to 13th. That is where the search traffic and betting interest will be strongest in the final days before May 12.
Our Predicted Qualifiers
Based on current odds, running order, and the 2026 jury return, our pre-rehearsal predicted qualifiers are:
1. Finland
2. Greece
3. Sweden
4. Israel
5. Moldova
6. Croatia
7. Serbia
8. Lithuania
9. Montenegro
10. Portugal
The first eight are market-led picks. The last two are more judgment calls.
Montenegro is above 60%, which is enough to keep it in for now. Portugal edges Georgia because juries are back, and a jury-friendly song can outperform a narrow pre-rehearsal market line. But this is thin: Georgia, Estonia and Poland are all close enough that a strong first rehearsal can flip the final spot.
The Four Near-Locks
Finland
Finland is both an outright favorite and a 99% qualifier in the current market. The main question is not whether it qualifies. The question is whether the May 2 artist rehearsal pushes *Liekinheitin* back below 2.40 in the outright winner market. Read Finland odds analysis →
Greece
Greece has become the biggest late-April odds story. Akylas shortened from 11.14 to 7.16 in the outright market after staging details became clearer, and Semi-Final 1 qualification is now priced at 1.01. Read Greece odds analysis →
Sweden
Sweden is the interesting split: very safe to qualify at 1.02, but drifting in the outright winner market to 22.86. That usually means the market trusts the floor more than the ceiling. Read Sweden odds analysis →
Israel
Israel is also 1.02 to qualify, with the extra angle that it has been strong in televote-winner markets. If the live package lands, *Michelle* could challenge for the semi-final win even if the jury score is less certain.
Bubble Picks: Who Is Actually in Danger?
The bubble starts earlier than casual fans may think. Moldova, Croatia and Serbia are likely, but not mathematically locked. Lithuania is the cut-off between likely qualifier and true bubble.
The most fragile group:
Georgia at 53.8%
Portugal at 50.8%
Estonia at 47.2%
Poland at 46.3%
Belgium at 39.4%
The strongest SEO angle here is that fans will search variations of "who will qualify from Eurovision semi-final 1" after rehearsals begin. This page should be updated quickly after May 2 and again before the May 11 jury show.
Best Value Angle Before Rehearsals
The outright favorites are too short in the qualifier market. The value is around the bubble:
Portugal to qualify if jury rehearsal reports are positive.
Georgia to qualify if the camera concept looks sharper than the market expects.
Poland to qualify if the live vocal is cleaner than pre-party expectations.
Belgium not to qualify if rehearsals do not show a major staging upgrade.
This is exactly the kind of market where prices can move fast. Compare live prices before betting: Eurovision odds comparison →.
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Sources & Verification
For the wider semi-final comparison, read Semi-Final 1 vs 2: who has the tougher draw?.
When prices move during rehearsal week, the fastest place to spot it is the live Eurovision odds page →.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will qualify from Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
The market currently points to Finland, Greece, Sweden, Israel, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia and Lithuania as the safest eight. The final two places are the real fight, with Montenegro, Georgia, Portugal, Estonia, Poland and Belgium all in the bubble zone. Compare live prices on our Eurovision odds page.
When is Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1?
Semi-Final 1 is on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 21:00 CEST at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
How many countries qualify from Semi-Final 1?
Ten countries qualify from the 15 competing entries in Semi-Final 1. Germany and Italy also perform in the show but are already qualified for the Grand Final and vote in this semi-final.
What changed in Eurovision semi-final voting for 2026?
Professional juries are back in the semi-finals for 2026 alongside the public vote. That makes polished vocal entries more dangerous and weak live vocals more risky than in the televote-only semi-final years.
Where can I track live Semi-Final 1 qualifier odds?
Use the WhatOdds Eurovision odds comparison for live outright and qualifier markets, then build your own ranking with our Eurovision scoreboard.
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